I examined the papers referenced in the paper unanimously considered the
basis of the 97% "rocky" consensus of the scientific world: CONSENSUS ON
CONSENSUS BY COOK ET AL., 2016. (Environ. Res. Lett. 8,
024024, nbt).
After extracting (selecting) all people who presented some consensus for the
anthropic
contribution to the Global Warming (GW), hereafter called pro-AGW, I
can derive (admittedly, in a very crude way) what follows:
- BRAY and VON STORCH 2007: 497 pro-AGW vs 1069 selected (46.49%)
- DORAN and ZIMMERMANN 2009: 2580 pro-AGW vs 10257 selected (25.15%)
- ANDEREGG et al. 2010: 906 pro-AGW vs 1372 selected (66%)
- BRAY 2010: 245 pro-AGW vs 2677 selected (9.15%)
- ROSENBERG ET AL 2010: 383 pro-AGW vs 986 selected (38.84%)
- FARNSWORTH E LICHTER 2012: 411 pro-AGW vs 1000 selected (41.1%)
- COOK ET AL 2013: 10188 pro-AGW vs 29286 selected (34.79%)
- STENHOUSE ET AL 2014: 1821 pro-AGW vs 7197 selected (25.3%)
- VERHEGGEN ET AL 2014: 1227 pro-AGW vs 8000 selected (15.34%)
- PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2015: 3261 pro-AGW vs 3748 selected (87%)
- CARLTON ET AL 2015: 633 pro-AGW vs 1868 selected (33.89%)
So I can obtain, after addition:
497+2580+906+245+383+411+10188+1821+1227+3261+633=
22,152 pro-AGW
vs
1069+10257+1372+2677+986+1000+29286+7197+8000+3748+1868=
67,460 selected
and so: 22,152/67,460= 32.84%.
In summary, I cannot see any unanimous CONSENSUS.
Not completely satisfied by the above analysis I further checked how many
scholars have as main refererence field the Climate Science, among all those who
replied to the polls, quoting themselves as pro-AGW, and derived the
following:
- BRAY and VON STORCH 2007: 63
- DORAN and ZIMMERMANN 2009: 75
- ANDEREGG et a., 2010: 194
- BRAY 2010: 245
- ROSENBERG et al 2010: 178
- FARNSWORTH and LICHTER 2012: datum not available, so I consider that all
the authors here are connected to climate, i.e. 411.
- COOK et al 2013: I note here a lot of smoke because Cook writes he did
find more than 29,000 authors with papers in the field of Climatology (but
we cannot know how many of them are actually active in the field) and to
have sent his questionnaire to 8,547 of them, receiving 1,189 answers, with only
746 declaring themselves as pro-AGW.
- STENHOUSE et al. 2014: 115
- VERHEGGEN et al. 2014: 555
- PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2015: 123
- CARLTON et al. 2015: 296
Again, we can obtain:
63+75+194+245+178+411+746+115+555+123+296= 3001
So, it appears that our planet's future depends on the opinions of 3,001
climatologists: no doubt that such a number is interesting (if the results does
not depend on double, triple or more checking, given that the names could
easily derive from the same lists and in the meanwhile -10 years- selected people did
not change field of interest or become skeptic or also die).
In any case, are we sure that the above 3,000 individuals are representative of the
thought of all the worldwide climatologists whose number is, based on the Cook's paper,
about 30,000 (i.e. 10%)?
The CONSENSUS becomes more and more a NONSENSUS at my AVVISUS (a joke
"latin" version for "in my opinion", nbt).
Gianluca adds new information and corrections in a comment at
http://www.climatemonitor.it/?p=43923:
I would like to add, solicited by the comments of some readers, that I
reconsidered with more attention the papers and introduced some correction, also
including the results of Gallup 1991:
- GALLUP 1991: 264 pro-AGW vs 400 selected (66%)
- BRAY and VON STORCH 2007: 497 pro-AGW vs 1069 selected (46.49%)
- DORAN and ZIMMERMANN 2009: 2580 pro-AGW vs 10257 selected (25.15%)
- ANDEREGG et al. 2010: 903 pro-AGW vs 1372 selected (65.81%)
- BRAY 2010: 245 pro-AGW vs 2677 selected (9.15%)
- ROSENBERG et al. 2010: 383 pro-AGW vs 986 selected (38.84%)
- FARNSWORTH E LICHTER 2012: 410 pro-AGW vs 998 (41.08%)
- COOK et al. 2013: 10188 pro-AGW SU 29286 selected (34.79%)
- STENHOUSE et al. 2014: 1329 pro-AGW vs 7197 selected (18.47%)
- VERHEGGEN et al. 2014: 1227 pro-AGW vs 8000 selected (15.34%)
- PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2015: 3261 pro-AGW vs 3748 selected (87%)
- CARLTON et al. 2015: 641 pro-AGW vs 1868 selected (34.3%)
Again adding:
264+497+2580+903+245+383+410+10188+1329+1227+3261+641=
21,928 pro-AGW
vs
400+1069+10257+1372+2677+986+998+29286+7197+8000+3748+1868=
67,858 selected
so, 21,928/67,858=32.31%
If I do account for only the pro-AGW climatologists:
- GALLUP 1991: 65
- BRAY and VON STORCH 2007: 46
- DORAN and ZIMMERMANN 2009: 75
- ANDEREGG et al. 2010: 194
- BRAY 2010: 245
- ROSENBERG at al. 2010: 178
- FARNSWORTH and LICHTER 2012: 410
- COOK et al. 2013: 746
- STENHOUSE et al. 2014: 115
- VERHEGGEN et al. 2014: 554
- PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2015: 123
- CARLTON et al 2015: 38
and, adding all:
65+46+75+194+245+178+410+746+115+554+123+38=
2,789 pro-AGW climatologists that,
compared to the above 30,000 experts selected by Cook, rappresent about the
9.29%
Percent of pro-AGW people appears to be slightly less than the initial calculation, but
probably my mistakes will be present in some amount, so I'm confident with
the kind collaboration of the readers.
References
- ANDEREGG et al. 2010: http://www.pnas.org/content/107/27/12107.full.pdf and
http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2010/06/07/1003187107.DCSupplemental/pnas.201003187SI.pdf#nameddest=STXT
- BRAY 2010:
https://www.academia.edu/3077313/The_Scientific_Consensus_of_Climate_Change_Revisited
- BRAY and VON STORCH 2007: http://www.hvonstorch.de/klima/pdf/GKSS_2007_11.pdf
(page B30 - fig.30)
- CARLTON et al. 2015: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094025/pdf
(pag.3), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094025
- COOK et al. 2013:http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/pdf (pag.4
- tab.3), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024. Environ. Res. Lett. 8(2013)
- COOK et al. 2016:http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002/pdf (pag. 3 e 4
- tab.1), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002
- DORAN and ZIMMERMANN 2009:
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/testfolder/aa-migration-to-be-deleted/assets-delete-me/documents-delete-me/ssi-delete-me/ssi/DoranEOS09.pdf
(pages 22-23)
- FARNSWORTH and LICHTER 2012:
https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/structure-scientific-opinion-climate-change
- PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2015:http://www.pewinternet.org/files/2015/07/Report-AAAS-Members-Elaboration_FINAL.pdf
(pag.13)
- ROSENBERG et al. 2010: http://bush.tamu.edu/istpp/scholarship/journals/ClimateScientistsPerspectives_ClimaticChange.pdf
(page 4 - tab.2)
- STENHOUSE et al. 2014:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1
(pages 1031 and 1034 – tab.1) (from a new analysis of the table I noted a
mistake in registering the number of pro-AGW scientists: not 1821, but 1329)
- VERHEGGEN et al. 2014: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es501998e
(page 8966)
Please note (nbt): the three papers at IOPSCIENCE (Carlton 2015, Cook 2013 and Cook
2016) cannot be accessed from the given link. Use the link to the DOI code.
Bray 2010 requires an access to Academia.edu.